Patreon Bitcoin Update – 25 Jan 2026

Market Structure Breakdown + 26–27 Jan Pivot Window

Since my last post on 21 Jan, BTC initially reversed to the upside, but as I wrote then — I was leaning towards a lower high forming around 26–27 Jan, and that I may have missed a pivot between 20–27.

Well… that pivot turned out to be 23 Jan, where price formed a lower high, and since then has continued down.

We never managed a daily close above $89,700, despite multiple intraday wicks. Each attempt quickly reversed back below resistance — a classic sign of rejection.

Current Price Action:As of the end of January 25, Bitcoin has broken below the next key support at 87,500 and is now heading toward 85,000.With this structure, January 26–27 is likely to form the next low.

On the weekly chart, this week’s candle has moved below the lows of the previous four weeks, and we are currently trading below the monthly open.

Key Levels to Watch:If price can hold over the next few days:

• 85,000 — square root support level

• 83,800 — December lowsHolding above these levels could offer some positivity—especially because it would still represent a higher low on the monthly timeframe. Even if the daily chart looks bearish, maintaining these levels monthly could be seen as structurally bullish.

Market Structure Insights:Let’s revisit how a trend is defined:

1. Bullish trend: higher highs + higher lowsBearish trend: lower highs + lower lows

2. Trend momentum: In an uptrend, you typically see 3–5 green candles followed by 1–3 red candles. In a downtrend, it’s the opposite—3–5 red candles followed by 1–3 green candles.

Currently on the daily chart, we have lower highs and lower lows, with more red candles than green—pointing to short-term downside momentum.

Monthly Context:On the monthly chart, Bitcoin has printed 4 red candles in a row. Historically, since Bitcoin began trading, there has only been one period of 6 consecutive red monthly candles—usually, it’s 2 or 3.We still have 6 days until the monthly close. Even if January closes red, February could turn green based purely on statistical trends.

Looking Ahead:The next important pivot is January 26–27.For the bullish higher-low structure to hold, we must stay above 83,800 (ideally 85,000).If that happens, a move toward 100k+ next month remains possible.

Stay alert around these levels as we approach this pivotal time window.

On the next chart, I’ve plotted one planetary cycle — different planets and planetary pairs influence the market in unique ways. I’ll continue sharing various cycles in future updates, but keep in mind: they’re only about 60–70% accurate in terms of trend direction, so while they offer useful guidance, I never rely on them alone for decision-making.

More updates coming soon

Bitcoin_Astro